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This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.


JANUARY 2004 KEY POINTS

Trend

The trend estimate for sales of new motor vehicles fell by 0.7% from December 2003 to 76,437 in January 2004. The trend estimate has fallen over the last five months following more than 12 months of consecutive growth.

The trend estimate for passenger vehicle sales has declined over the last five months, while the trend estimate for sales of other vehicles has continued to increase.

Growth in the trend estimate of 6.4% was recorded for January 2004 when compared with January 2003. Sales of passenger vehicles increased by 2.3% and sales of other vehicles increased by 13.9% over the period.

The trend estimate for January 2004 fell when compared with December 2003 for all states/territories. Tasmania recorded the largest percentage decrease (3.0%).

Seasonally adjusted

The seasonally adjusted estimate for January 2004 increased by 7.7% when compared with December 2003. The Northern Territory (0.6%) and Australian Capital Territory (0.1%) were the only states/territories to record a decrease in the seasonally adjusted estimate.


NOTES


TREND REVISIONS

Trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales

		Passenger vehicles (No.)	Other vehicles (No.)	Total vehicles (No.)	Change Passenger vehicles (%)	Change Other vehicles (%)	Change Total vehicles (%)
Original
2002	November	47,229	24,346	71,575	-2.2	1.2	-1.0
	December	45,317	22,656	67,973	-4.0	-6.9	-5.0
2003	January	40,015	21,155	61,170	-11.7	-6.6	-10.0
	February	43,677	23,058	66,735	9.2	9.0	9.1
	March	49,921	26,192	76,113	14.3	13.6	14.1
	April	44,602	24,263	68,865	-10.7	-7.4	-9.5
	May	49,646	28,616	78,262	11.3	17.9	13.6
	June	57,086	34,972	92,058	15.0	22.2	17.6
	July	51,450	28,071	79,521	-9.9	-19.7	-13.6
	August	49,869	26,304	76,173	-3.1	-6.3	-4.2
	September	51,749	26,042	77,791	3.8	-1.0	2.1
	October	52,180	27,045	79,225	0.8	3.9	1.8
	November	48,482	27,630	76,112	-7.1	2.2	-3.9
	December	49,834	27,952	77,786	2.8	1.2	2.2
2004	January	40,715	24,082	64,797	-18.3	-13.8	-16.7
Seasonally Adjusted
2002	November	45,870	24,237	70,107	0.8	-0.6	0.3
	December	42,604	22,085	64,689	-7.1	-8.9	-7.7
2003	January	46,883	25,602	72,485	10.0	15.9	12.1
	February	46,930	24,924	71,854	0.1	-2.6	-0.9
	March	48,233	25,666	73,899	2.8	3.0	2.8
	April	48,988	26,203	75,191	1.6	2.1	1.7
	May	49,923	26,801	76,724	1.9	2.3	2.0
	June	50,425	27,297	77,722	1.0	1.9	1.3
	July	49,983	27,797	77,780	-0.9	1.8	0.1
	August	51,495	27,277	78,772	3.0	-1.9	1.3
	September	53,013	27,608	80,621	2.9	1.2	2.3
	October	49,294	27,680	76,974	-7.0	0.3	-4.5
	November	48,481	28,276	76,757	-1.6	2.2	-0.3
	December	45,970	26,996	72,966	-5.2	-4.5	-4.9
2004	January	48,882	29,724	78,606	6.3	10.1	7.7
Trend
2002	November	45,913	24,719	70,632	0.6	0.4	0.6
	December	46,297	24,858	71,155	0.8	0.6	0.7
2003	January	46,809	25,062	71,871	1.1	0.8	1.0
	February	47,442	25,383	72,825	1.4	1.3	1.3
	March	48,128	25,806	73,934	1.4	1.7	1.5
	April	48,854	26,260	75,114	1.5	1.8	1.6
	May	49,652	26,699	76,351	1.6	1.7	1.6
	June	50,512	27,133	77,645	1.7	1.6	1.7
	July	51,163	27,474	78,637	1.3	1.3	1.3
	August	51,349	27,687	79,036	0.4	0.8	0.5
	September	51,036	27,821	78,857	-0.6	0.5	-0.2
	October	50,361	27,967	78,328	-1.3	0.5	-0.7
	November	49,505	28,147	77,652	-1.7	0.6	-0.9
	December	48,645	28,349	76,994	-1.7	0.7	-0.8
2004	January	47,890	28,547	76,437	-1.6	0.7	-0.7

		NSW (No.)	Vic. (No.)	Qld (No.)	SA (No.)	WA (No.)	Tas. (No.)	NT (No.)	ACT (No.)	Aust. (No.)
Original
2002	November	24,349	19,829	13,224	4,641	6,320	1,398	628	1,186	71,575
	December	21,741	19,706	12,672	4,531	5,989	1,584	585	1,165	67,973
2003	January	20,648	16,490	11,632	3,988	5,762	1,025	534	1,091	61,170
	February	21,965	18,152	12,956	4,754	6,164	1,069	582	1,093	66,735
	March	25,541	20,408	14,843	5,147	6,917	1,218	769	1,270	76,113
	April	23,588	18,368	13,386	4,507	5,948	1,177	728	1,163	68,865
	May	26,259	21,053	14,967	5,273	7,127	1,454	789	1,340	78,262
	June	31,168	24,132	18,084	6,089	8,662	1,549	866	1,508	92,058
	July	26,983	21,248	15,716	5,298	6,973	1,407	635	1,261	79,521
	August	25,391	19,799	15,248	5,263	7,048	1,589	555	1,280	76,173
	September	25,738	21,200	15,293	5,222	6,894	1,639	593	1,212	77,791
	October	25,533	21,337	15,521	5,430	7,487	2,008	607	1,302	79,225
	November	25,099	20,254	15,058	5,214	6,925	1,717	630	1,215	76,112
	December	25,113	21,071	15,265	5,404	7,161	1,860	593	1,319	77,786
2004	January	21,216	16,857	13,403	4,334	6,249	1,193	498	1,047	64,797
Seasonally Adjusted
2002	November	23,747	19,352	13,110	4,516	6,321	1,275	620	1,166	70,107
	December	20,982	18,610	12,199	4,327	5,715	1,094	629	1,133	64,689
2003	January	24,476	19,685	13,711	4,842	6,571	1,304	658	1,238	72,485
	February	24,039	19,539	13,704	4,991	6,466	1,275	670	1,170	71,854
	March	24,556	20,081	14,468	4,967	6,583	1,318	697	1,229	73,899
	April	25,648	20,201	14,539	5,069	6,406	1,379	694	1,255	75,191
	May	25,643	20,759	14,784	5,109	7,037	1,427	676	1,289	76,724
	June	26,071	21,083	14,676	5,120	7,300	1,492	670	1,310	77,722
	July	25,808	20,802	15,458	5,203	7,140	1,475	644	1,250	77,780
	August	26,495	20,524	15,760	5,342	7,189	1,581	602	1,279	78,772
	September	27,260	21,189	15,855	5,405	7,318	1,619	677	1,298	80,621
	October	24,697	20,092	15,676	5,335	7,280	1,992	632	1,270	76,974
	November	24,838	20,373	15,658	5,261	7,106	1,645	639	1,237	76,757
	December	23,887	19,685	14,301	5,106	6,865	1,266	624	1,232	72,966
2004	January	26,000	20,564	16,056	5,320	7,262	1,553	620	1,231	78,606
Trend
2002	November	23,935	19,324	13,467	4,532	6,323	1,255	619	1,177	70,632
	December	24,052	19,456	13,545	4,637	6,385	1,262	636	1,182	71,155
2003	January	24,245	19,609	13,694	4,760	6,437	1,276	656	1,194	71,871
	February	24,521	19,823	13,920	4,878	6,501	1,299	673	1,210	72,825
	March	24,843	20,078	14,187	4,979	6,602	1,332	682	1,231	73,934
	April	25,195	20,336	14,481	5,059	6,739	1,366	684	1,254	75,114
	May	25,606	20,576	14,779	5,124	6,904	1,410	678	1,274	76,351
	June	26,055	20,797	15,098	5,186	7,068	1,478	669	1,294	77,645
	July	26,380	20,929	15,371	5,244	7,192	1,556	659	1,306	78,637
	August	26,453	20,933	15,537	5,289	7,245	1,620	651	1,308	79,036
	September	26,293	20,833	15,594	5,307	7,232	1,653	646	1,299	78,857
	October	26,005	20,687	15,568	5,303	7,188	1,652	641	1,284	78,328
	November	25,661	20,530	15,503	5,285	7,148	1,623	635	1,267	77,652
	December	25,332	20,379	15,442	5,265	7,117	1,580	630	1,249	76,994
2004	January	25,069	20,266	15,364	5,243	7,103	1,533	625	1,234	76,437